Snow Forecast Comparison and Verification Tool: Nov. 9 - Nov. 12, 2021

Updated Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:00pm MST | Published Fri Nov 12, 2021

By Thomas Horner

Last updated Friday November 12, 2021 8:15pm.

Forecast Start: Tuesday November 9, 2021 5pm

Forecast End: Friday November 12, 2021 5am

* = No reliable observations, verification uses SNODAS estimates which may be incorrect.
"Score" accounts for the spread/range of an accurate forecast. Lower spread = higher score. For instance, if 4" falls at a certain location, the forecast for 2-7" gets less points than the forecast for 3-5". Points are deducted for very inaccurate forecasts.

Thomas Horner

Issued Nov. 9 3pm
✔️ Verified
70%
29/41
Score
21%
44/205
🎯 Spread
4.5
average
💥 High
10
24%
❌ Low
2
4%

Note: (Fri Nov. 12 8pm) A couple of questionable choices (the two low busts), and general overperformance in Summit County, but not too bad -- spreads could have been tighter.

Central Colorado
9/55pts (16%) ✔️8/11 (72%) 💥2/11 (18%) 1/11 (9%)

Aspen Highlands: 3-8" Forecast Actual13" 💥️

-1pts
10" Nov 10 5am (Official)
2" Nov 11 5am (Official)
1" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Aspen Mountain: 3-8" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

1pts
5" Nov 10 5am (Official)
2" Nov 11 5am (Official)
0" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Aspen Snowmass: 4-9" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
5" Nov 10 5am (Official)
2" Nov 11 5am (Official)
0" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Buttermilk: 2-7" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

4" Nov 10 5am (Official)
0" Nov 11 5am (Official)
0" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Cottonwood Pass*: 1-5" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
2" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
1" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Crested Butte: 2-6" Forecast Actual7" 💥️

5" Nov 10 5pm (Webcam)
2" Nov 11 5am (Webcam)
0" Nov 12 5am (Webcam)

Independence Pass*: 3-7" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
4" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
2" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
1" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Kebler Pass*: 4-9" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
5" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
1" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Monarch: 2-6" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
3" Nov 10 9am (Official)
2" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Powderhorn*: 2-6" Forecast Actual1" ❌️

1" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Sunlight*: 1-5" Forecast Actual1.5" ✔️

1pts
0.5" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
1" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Front Range
9/60pts (15%) ✔️7/12 (58%) 💥5/12 (41%) 0/12 (0%)

A-Basin: 2-7" Forecast Actual11" 💥️

-1pts
2" Nov 10 5am (Official)
4" Nov 11 5am (Official)
5" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Berthoud Pass: 4-9" Forecast Actual13" 💥️

-1pts
1" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
6" Nov 11 5am (SNOTEL)
6" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)

Cameron Pass: 5-10" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

2pts
1" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
0" Nov 11 5am (SNOTEL)
4" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)

East Portal*: 5-10" Forecast Actual8" ✔️

2pts
0" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
5" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
3" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Echo Mountain*: 0-4" Forecast Actual0.5" ✔️

2pts
0" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0.5" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Eldora: 2-6" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
0" Nov 10 5am (Webcam)
3" Nov 11 9am (Webcam)
2" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Hidden Valley*: 2-6" Forecast Actual4.0" ✔️

1pts
0.5" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
1.5" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
2" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Jones Pass: 5-10" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
1" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
3" Nov 11 5am (SNOTEL)
2" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)

Keystone: 2-7" Forecast Actual8" 💥️

2" Nov 10 5am (Official)
4" Nov 11 5am (Official)
2" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Loveland S.A.: 4-9" Forecast Actual13.5" 💥️

-1pts
4" Nov 10 8am (Official)
5.5" Nov 11 8am (Official)
4" Nov 12 8am (Official)

St. Mary's Glacier*: 5-10" Forecast Actual9.5" ✔️

2pts
0" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
6" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
3.5" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Winter Park: 4-9" Forecast Actual10" 💥️

2" Nov 10 12pm (Webcam)
6" Nov 11 5am (Webcam)
2" Nov 12 5am (Webcam)

Gore / Tenmile / N. Sawatch
3/30pts (10%) ✔️3/6 (50%) 💥3/6 (50%) 0/6 (0%)

Beaver Creek: 4-9" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

2pts
5" Nov 10 5am (Official)
0" Nov 11 5am (Official)
0" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Breckenridge S.A.: 2-7" Forecast Actual15" 💥️

-2pts
2" Nov 10 5am (Official)
8" Nov 11 5am (Official)
5" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Copper Mountain: 3-8" Forecast Actual12" 💥️

-1pts
5" Nov 10 12pm (Webcam)
4" Nov 11 5am (Webcam)
3" Nov 12 5am (Webcam)

Ski Cooper*: 2-7" Forecast Actual10" 💥️

4" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
3" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
3" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Vail Pass*: 4-9" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
4" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
1" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
2" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Vail S.A.: 4-9" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
4" Nov 10 5am (Official)
1" Nov 11 5am (Official)
1" Nov 12 5am (Official)

Park Range / WY
8/25pts (32%) ✔️4/5 (80%) 💥0/5 (0%) 1/5 (20%)

Bluebird*: 5-10" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
2" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
1" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
4" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Buffalo Pass: 10-16" Forecast (High boom potential) Actual13" ✔️

3pts
5" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
3" Nov 11 5am (SNOTEL)
5" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)
Note: SNOTEL liquid precip gauge suggests 2+ feet of snow. Winds may have blown snow off the snow depth gauge.

Rabbit Ears Pass: 6-12" Forecast Actual10" ✔️

2pts
4" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
2" Nov 11 5am (SNOTEL)
4" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)

Snowy Range*: 4-9" Forecast Actual1.5" ❌️

-1pts
0.5" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
1" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Steamboat S.A.: 6-12" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
2" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
2" Nov 11 9am (Estimated)
2" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)
Note: Used a combination of webcam and estimates. Winds were removing snow from the snow stake, more snow fell than reflected on the stake.

Southern Colorado / NM
15/35pts (42%) ✔️7/7 (100%) 💥0/7 (0%) 0/7 (0%)

Cuchara*: 0-1" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

4pts
0" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Purgatory: 0-3" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

2pts
0" Nov 10 5am (Webcam)
0" Nov 11 5am (Webcam)
0" Nov 12 5am (Webcam)

Red Mountain Pass: 2-6" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

1pts
2" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
2" Nov 11 9am (SNOTEL)
0" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)

Silverton S.A.*: 1-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Nov 10 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 11 5am (Estimated)
0" Nov 12 5am (Estimated)

Taos S.A.: 0-1" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

4pts
0" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
0" Nov 11 5am (SNOTEL)
0" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)

Telluride S.A.: 1-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Nov 10 5am (Webcam)
0" Nov 11 5am (Webcam)
0" Nov 12 5am (Webcam)

Wolf Creek: 0-3" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

2pts
2" Nov 10 5am (SNOTEL)
0" Nov 11 9am (SNOTEL)
0" Nov 12 5am (SNOTEL)

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