Snow Forecast Comparison and Verification Tool: Dec. 6 - Dec. 8, 2021

Updated Wed Dec 8, 2021 12:00pm MST | Published Tue Dec 7, 2021

By Thomas Horner

Last updated Wednesday December 8, 2021 12pm.

Forecast Start: Monday December 6, 2021 5am

Forecast End: Wednesday December 8, 2021 5am

* = No reliable observations, verification uses SNODAS estimates which may be incorrect.
"Score" accounts for the spread/range of an accurate forecast. Lower spread = higher score. For instance, if 4" falls at a certain location, the forecast for 2-7" gets less points than the forecast for 3-5". Points are deducted for very inaccurate forecasts.

Thomas Horner Weather Forecaster @ Highpoint Weather

Issued Sun Dec. 5 11pm
✔️ Verified
84%
33/39
Score
31%
62/195
🎯 Spread
3.2
average
💥 High
3
7%
❌ Low
3
7%

Note: (Fri Dec. 3 11pm) Going for tighter ranges this time around.

Central Colorado
13/45pts (28%) ✔️9/9 (100%) 💥0/9 (0%) 0/9 (0%)

Aspen Highlands: 2-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Aspen Mountain: 2-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Aspen Snowmass: 2-6" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
1" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Buttermilk: 1-4" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
1" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Cottonwood Pass*: 1-3" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
0" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Crested Butte: 1-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Independence Pass*: 1-4" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
0" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Kebler Pass*: 3-7" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

2pts
3" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Monarch: 2-6" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Front Range
11/25pts (44%) ✔️5/5 (100%) 💥0/5 (0%) 0/5 (0%)

Cameron Pass: 1-5" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 9am (SNODAS)
1" Dec 8 5am (SNODAS)

East Portal*: 0-3" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
0" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Eldora: 0-2" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

3pts
0" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Hidden Valley*: 0-3" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 8 5am (Official)

St. Mary's Glacier*: 0-2" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

3pts
0" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 8 5am (Official)

I-70 East
12/35pts (34%) ✔️7/7 (100%) 💥0/7 (0%) 0/7 (0%)

A-Basin: 1-4" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Berthoud Pass: 1-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 9am (SNODAS)
0" Dec 8 5am (SNODAS)

Echo Mountain*: 0-1" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

4pts
0" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Jones Pass: 1-5" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

1pts
1" Dec 7 8am (SNOTEL)
0" Dec 8 5am (SNOTEL)

Keystone: 1-3" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Loveland S.A.: 1-5" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

1pts
1" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Winter Park: 1-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

I-70 West
11/35pts (31%) ✔️7/7 (100%) 💥0/7 (0%) 0/7 (0%)

Beaver Creek: 2-6" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Breckenridge S.A.: 1-4" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

2pts
4" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Copper Mountain: 1-4" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

2pts
4" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Powderhorn: 1-4" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Ski Cooper*: 1-4" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
0" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Sunlight*: 2-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
0" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Vail Pass*: 1-5" Forecast Actual N/A

Vail S.A.: 2-6" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

1pts
4" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Park Range / WY
0/20pts (0%) ✔️0/4 (0%) 💥1/4 (25%) 3/4 (75%)

Bluebird*: 2-6" Forecast Actual N/A

Buffalo Pass: 5-10" Forecast Actual3" ❌️

2" Dec 7 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Dec 8 5am (SNOTEL)
Note: SNOTEL recorded 0.5" of SWE change -- maybe 6"+ of snow fell, but wind may have stripped it from the station's depth gauge.

Rabbit Ears Pass: 3-7" Forecast Actual1" ❌️

1" Dec 7 5am (SNOTEL)
0" Dec 8 5am (SNOTEL)

Snowy Range*: 1-5" Forecast Actual7" 💥️

6" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Steamboat S.A.: 3-7" Forecast Actual2" ❌️

1" Dec 7 5am (Official)
1" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Southern Colorado / NM
15/35pts (42%) ✔️5/7 (71%) 💥2/7 (28%) 0/7 (0%)

Cuchara*: 0" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

5pts
0" Dec 7 5am (Estimated)
0" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Purgatory: 1-4" Forecast Actual5" 💥️

3" Dec 7 5am (Official)
2" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Red Mountain Pass: 3-7" Forecast Actual9" 💥️

8" Dec 7 9am (SNOTEL)
1" Dec 8 5am (SNOTEL)

Silverton S.A.*: 3-7" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
6" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 8 5am (Estimated)

Taos S.A.: 0-1" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

4pts
0" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Telluride S.A.: 3-7" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
6" Dec 7 5am (Official)
0" Dec 8 5am (Official)

Wolf Creek: 0-3" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

2pts
0" Dec 7 5am (Official)
2" Dec 8 5am (Official)

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