Snow Forecast Comparison and Verification Tool: Dec. 8 - Dec. 11, 2021

Updated Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:00pm MST | Published Sat Dec 11, 2021

By Thomas Horner

Last updated Monday December 13, 2021 6pm.

Forecast Start: Wednesday December 8, 2021 11am

Forecast End: Saturday December 11, 2021 5am

* = No reliable observations, verification uses SNODAS estimates which may be incorrect.
"Score" accounts for the spread/range of an accurate forecast. Lower spread = higher score. For instance, if 4" falls at a certain location, the forecast for 2-7" gets less points than the forecast for 3-5". Points are deducted for very inaccurate forecasts.

Thomas Horner Weather Forecaster @ Highpoint Weather

Issued Wed Dec. 8 3pm
✔️ Verified
66%
20/30
Score
18%
28/150
🎯 Spread
8.2
average
💥 High
10
33%
❌ Low
0
0%

Note: (Wed Dec. 8 6pm) Worked with consistent ranges. E.g. 3-8, 4-9, 5-10, 6-12, 7-14, 8-16, 9-18, 10-20, 12-24...

Central Colorado
5/35pts (14%) ✔️4/7 (57%) 💥3/7 (42%) 0/7 (0%)

Aspen Highlands: 10-20" Forecast Actual26" 💥️

-1pts
8" Dec 9 5am (Official)
16" Dec 10 5am (Official)
2" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Aspen Mountain: 9-18" Forecast Actual24" 💥️

-1pts
4" Dec 9 5am (Official)
15" Dec 10 5am (Official)
5" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Aspen Snowmass: 12-24" Forecast Actual23" ✔️

2pts
3" Dec 9 5am (Official)
14" Dec 10 5am (Official)
6" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Buttermilk: 9-18" Forecast Actual18" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 9 5am (Official)
15" Dec 10 5am (Official)
2" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Cottonwood Pass*: 10-20" Forecast Actual15" ✔️

2pts
5" Dec 9 5am (SNOTEL)
8" Dec 10 5am (SNOTEL)
2" Dec 11 5am (SNOTEL)

Crested Butte: 12-24" Forecast Actual31" 💥️

-1pts
7" Dec 9 5am (Official)
22" Dec 10 5am (Official)
2" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Independence Pass*: 6-12" Forecast Actual N/A

Kebler Pass*: 15-30" Forecast Actual N/A

Monarch: 7-14" Forecast Actual11" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 9 5am (Official)
7" Dec 10 5am (Official)
2" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Front Range
2/10pts (20%) ✔️2/2 (100%) 💥0/2 (0%) 0/2 (0%)

Cameron Pass: 8-16" Forecast Actual9" ✔️

2pts
0" Dec 9 5am (SNOTEL)
8" Dec 10 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Dec 11 5am (SNOTEL)

East Portal*: 3-8" Forecast Actual N/A

Eldora: 2-7" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

0" Dec 9 5am (Official)
2" Dec 10 5am (Official)
0" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Hidden Valley*: 5-10" Forecast Actual N/A

St. Mary's Glacier*: 3-8" Forecast Actual N/A

I-70 East
11/30pts (36%) ✔️6/6 (100%) 💥0/6 (0%) 0/6 (0%)

A-Basin: 4-9" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 9 5am (Official)
3" Dec 10 5am (Official)
1" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Berthoud Pass: 6-12" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 9 5am (SNOTEL)
5" Dec 10 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Dec 11 5am (SNOTEL)

Echo Mountain*: 0-4" Forecast Actual N/A

Jones Pass: 6-12" Forecast Actual9" ✔️

2pts
4" Dec 9 5am (SNOTEL)
4" Dec 10 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Dec 11 5am (SNOTEL)

Keystone: 3-8" Forecast Actual8" ✔️

1pts
1" Dec 9 5am (Official)
4" Dec 10 5am (Official)
3" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Loveland S.A.: 4-9" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 9 5am (Official)
3" Dec 10 5am (Official)
1" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Winter Park: 4-9" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 9 5am (Official)
5" Dec 10 5am (Official)
1" Dec 11 5am (Official)

I-70 West
4/25pts (16%) ✔️3/5 (60%) 💥2/5 (40%) 0/5 (0%)

Beaver Creek: 10-20" Forecast Actual15" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 9 5am (Official)
10" Dec 10 5am (Official)
3" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Breckenridge S.A.: 4-9" Forecast Actual15" 💥️

-1pts
5" Dec 9 5am (Official)
5" Dec 10 5am (Official)
5" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Copper Mountain: 5-10" Forecast Actual16" 💥️

-1pts
6" Dec 9 5am (Official)
5" Dec 10 5am (Official)
5" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Powderhorn: 12-24" Forecast Actual23" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 9 5am (Official)
20" Dec 10 5am (Official)
1" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Ski Cooper*: 6-12" Forecast Actual N/A

Sunlight*: 10-20" Forecast Actual N/A

Vail Pass*: 8-16" Forecast Actual N/A

Vail S.A.: 9-18" Forecast Actual16" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 9 5am (Official)
11" Dec 10 5am (Official)
3" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Park Range / WY
6/20pts (30%) ✔️3/4 (75%) 💥1/4 (25%) 0/4 (0%)

Bluebird*: 8-16" Forecast Actual N/A

Buffalo Pass: 15-30" Forecast Actual28" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 9 5am (SNOTEL)
11" Dec 10 5am (SNOTEL)
15" Dec 11 5am (SNOTEL)

Rabbit Ears Pass: 10-20" Forecast Actual15" ✔️

2pts
3" Dec 9 5am (SNOTEL)
7" Dec 10 5am (SNOTEL)
5" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Snowy Range: 8-16" Forecast Actual17" 💥️

17" Dec 11 5am (Official (3 Day Total))

Steamboat S.A.: 10-20" Forecast Actual18" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 9 5am (Official)
10" Dec 10 5am (Official)
7" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Southern Colorado / NM
0/30pts (0%) ✔️2/6 (33%) 💥4/6 (66%) 0/6 (0%)

Cuchara*: 0-4" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 11 5am (Estimated 72hr)

Purgatory: 12-24" Forecast Actual29" 💥️

-1pts
2" Dec 9 5am (Official)
25" Dec 10 5am (Official)
2" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Red Mountain Pass: 12-24" Forecast Actual18" ✔️

2pts
2" Dec 9 5am (SNOTEL)
15" Dec 10 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Dec 11 5am (SNOTEL)

Silverton S.A.*: 10-20" Forecast Actual N/A

Taos S.A.: 4-9" Forecast Actual12" 💥️

1" Dec 9 5am (Official)
4" Dec 10 5am (Official)
7" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Telluride S.A.: 10-20" Forecast Actual26" 💥️

-1pts
2" Dec 9 5am (Official)
16" Dec 10 5am (Official)
8" Dec 11 5am (Official)

Wolf Creek: 12-24" Forecast Actual34" 💥️

-2pts
6" Dec 9 5am (Official)
25" Dec 10 5am (Official)
3" Dec 11 5am (Official)

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