Snow Forecast Comparison and Verification Tool: Dec. 14 - Dec. 16, 2021

Updated Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:00pm MST | Published Thu Dec 16, 2021

By Thomas Horner

Last updated Thursday December 16, 2021 9pm.

Forecast Start: Tuesday December 14, 2021 5pm

Forecast End: Thursday December 16, 2021 5am

* = No reliable observations, verification uses SNODAS estimates which may be incorrect.
"Score" accounts for the spread/range of an accurate forecast. Lower spread = higher score. For instance, if 4" falls at a certain location, the forecast for 2-7" gets less points than the forecast for 3-5". Points are deducted for very inaccurate forecasts.

Thomas Horner Weather Forecaster @ Highpoint Weather

Issued Tue Dec. 14 9pm
✔️ Verified
87%
28/32
Score
17%
28/160
🎯 Spread
4.8
average
💥 High
2
6%
❌ Low
2
6%

Central Colorado
5/35pts (14%) ✔️6/7 (85%) 💥0/7 (0%) 1/7 (14%)

Aspen Highlands: 2-6" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
5" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Aspen Mountain: 2-6" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
2" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Aspen Snowmass: 3-7" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

2pts
1" Dec 15 5am (Official)
3" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Buttermilk: 2-6" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
2" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Cottonwood Pass*: 2-6" Forecast Actual1" ❌️

0" Dec 15 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Dec 16 5am (SNOTEL)

Crested Butte S.A.: 2-8" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

2" Dec 15 5am (Official)
3" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Independence Pass*: 2-6" Forecast Actual N/A

Kebler Pass*: 4-9" Forecast Actual N/A

Monarch: 2-7" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
5" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Front Range
3/10pts (30%) ✔️2/2 (100%) 💥0/2 (0%) 0/2 (0%)

Cameron Pass: 1-5" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (SNOTEL)
3" Dec 16 5am (SNOTEL)

East Portal*: 0-4" Forecast Actual N/A

Eldora: 0-3" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
1" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Hidden Valley*: 0-4" Forecast Actual N/A

St. Mary's Glacier*: 0-4" Forecast Actual N/A

I-70 East
4/30pts (13%) ✔️5/6 (83%) 💥1/6 (16%) 0/6 (0%)

A-Basin: 1-5" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
3" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Berthoud Pass: 1-5" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (SNOTEL)
5" Dec 16 5am (SNOTEL)

Echo Mountain*: 0-4" Forecast Actual N/A

Jones Pass: 1-5" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (SNOTEL)
3" Dec 16 5am (SNOTEL)

Keystone: 1-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
2" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Loveland S.A.: 1-5" Forecast Actual3.5" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
3.5" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Winter Park: 1-5" Forecast Actual9" 💥️

-1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
9" Dec 16 5am (Official)

I-70 West
3/35pts (8%) ✔️7/7 (100%) 💥0/7 (0%) 0/7 (0%)

Beaver Creek: 3-8" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
5" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Breckenridge S.A.: 2-7" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

1" Dec 15 5am (Official)
5" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Copper Mountain: 2-7" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
4" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Powderhorn: 3-8" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

1pts
1" Dec 15 5am (Official)
5" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Ski Cooper: 2-7" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

3" Dec 15 5am (Official)
3" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Sunlight: 2-7" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1" Dec 15 5am (Official)
2" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Vail Pass*: 2-7" Forecast Actual N/A

Vail S.A.: 3-8" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
3" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Park Range / WY
3/20pts (15%) ✔️2/4 (50%) 💥1/4 (25%) 1/4 (25%)

Bluebird*: 2-6" Forecast Actual N/A

Buffalo Pass: 6-12" Forecast Actual4" ❌️

0" Dec 15 5am (SNOTEL)
4" Dec 16 5am (SNOTEL)

Rabbit Ears Pass: 4-9" Forecast Actual9" ✔️

2pts
0" Dec 15 5am (SNOTEL)
9" Dec 16 5am (SNOTEL)

Snowy Range: 0-4" Forecast Actual6" 💥️

0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
6" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Steamboat S.A.: 3-8" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

1pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Official)
6" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Southern Colorado / NM
10/30pts (33%) ✔️6/6 (100%) 💥0/6 (0%) 0/6 (0%)

Cuchara*: 0-3" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
0" Dec 15 5am (Estimated)
1" Dec 16 5am (Estimated)

Purgatory: 8-16" Forecast Actual10" ✔️

2pts
4" Dec 15 5am (Official)
6" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Red Mountain Pass: 7-14" Forecast Actual8" ✔️

2pts
6" Dec 15 5am (SNOTEL)
2" Dec 16 5am (SNOTEL)

Silverton S.A.*: 7-14" Forecast Actual N/A

Taos S.V.: 1-5" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Dec 15 5am (Official)
0" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Telluride S.A.: 3-9" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

1pts
5" Dec 15 5am (Official)
2" Dec 16 5am (Official)

Wolf Creek: 10-20" Forecast Actual14" ✔️

2pts
7" Dec 15 5am (Official)
7" Dec 16 5am (Official)

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