Colorado Weather Forecast #163: Feb. 3, 2022 - Feb. 14, 2022

Totals and model comparison for the storm, low temperatures, a few waves in the next week or two, a better pattern in the long range?

Contents

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Updated Fri Feb 4, 2022 6:00pm MST | Published Thu Feb 3, 2022

By Thomas Horner

7-Day Snow Planner (Through Feb. 12)

Northern Mountains

Park Range and N Front Range: Steamboat, Buffalo Pass, Rabbit Ears Pass, Bluebird, RMNP, IPW, Cameron Pass

6am New Snow

0-2"

Sun

0"

Mon

0"

Tue

0-1"

Wed

0-2"

Thu

0"

Fri

0-1"

Sat

6am Powder Potential

2%

Sun

0%

Mon

0%

Tue

0%

Wed

5%

Thu

0%

Fri

0%

Sat

I-70 Corridor

Front Range, Gore Range, etc.: Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Jones Pass, Loveland, A-Basin, Keystone, Breck, Copper, Vail Pass, Vail, Beaver Creek

6am New Snow

0-1"

Sun

0"

Mon

0"

Tue

0-1"

Wed

0-2"

Thu

0"

Fri

0-1"

Sat

6am Powder Potential

0%

Sun

0%

Mon

0%

Tue

0%

Wed

4%

Thu

0%

Fri

0%

Sat

Central Mountains

Elk Mountains, Sawatch Range, Grand Mesa, West Elks: Aspen Resorts, Crested Butte, Powderhorn, Sunlight, Kebler Pass, Independence Pass, Cottonwood Pass, Monarch

6am New Snow

0"

Sun

0"

Mon

0"

Tue

0"

Wed

0-1"

Thu

0"

Fri

0"

Sat

6am Powder Potential

0%

Sun

0%

Mon

0%

Tue

0%

Wed

1%

Thu

0%

Fri

0%

Sat

Southern Mountains

San Juans: Telluride, Red Mountain Pass, Silverton, Coal Bank Pass, Purgatory, Wolf Creek

6am New Snow

0"

Sun

0"

Mon

0"

Tue

0"

Wed

0-1"

Thu

0"

Fri

0"

Sat

6am Powder Potential

0%

Sun

0%

Mon

0%

Tue

0%

Wed

0%

Thu

0%

Fri

0%

Sat

Denver Metro

Denver and surrounding suburbs: Lakewood, Westminster, Aurora, Highlands Ranch

6am New Snow

0"

Sun

0"

Mon

0"

Tue

0"

Wed

0"

Thu

0"

Fri

0"

Sat

6am Snow Accum. Chance

6%

Sun

21%

Mon

0%

Tue

13%

Wed

28%

Thu

0%

Fri

7%

Sat

Retrospective

Snowfall ended early this morning, with great two day totals in southern Colorado and only scraps for the northern and central mountains. The Front Range also saw an interesting Denver Cyclone event – we talked about this in yesterday’s discussion so we wont go into details about that again.

In northern and central Colorado, were hoping to pick up a couple more inches of snow last night, but the reality was that many areas could only muster a trace amount of snow, with a few spots picking up 1-3”. Still, this ended up getting most areas into our forecast range, with only Sunlight, A-Basin, and Eldora falling short.

Snow Reports

Here are some 48 hour totals as of this morning:

  • Taos: 27”
  • Wolf Creek: 27”
  • Cuchara: 16”
  • Silverton: 7”
  • Monarch: 6”
  • Purgatory: 6”

Further north in the state, basically a non-event:

  • Breck: 5”
  • Copper: 5”
  • Aspen Resorts: 3-5”
  • Beaver Creek: 4”
  • Loveland SA: 4”
  • Keystone: 4”
  • Vail: 3”
  • A-Basin: 3”
  • Winter Park: 3”
  • Steamboat: 1”
  • Bluebird: 0”
  • Powderhorn: 0”
  • Sunlight: 0”

Model Comparison

In general, this storm struggled to meet expectations, with all weather models showing a wet bias (for us, only Wolf Creek overperformed) except for the NAM. We once again took the top spot in terms of verification, though the NBM 25th-75th percentile did really well considering its tight spread and near misses.

This has juggled the overall verification table for this season a little bit:

Rank Name Type Avg. W/L
1 Thomas Horner (Highpoint Weather) Forecaster 78% 5/0
* Highpoint Weather App Model 74% N/A
2 OpenSnow Forecaster 71% 1/0
3 (▲1) CAIC WRF Model 61% 0/0
4 (▲1) NAM 12km Model 57% 0/0
5 (▼2) NWS NDFD Hybrid 54% 0/1
6 (▲1) ECMWF (Euro) Model 53% 0/1
7 (▲1) NBM Deterministic Model 51% 0/1
8 (▼3) NBM Prob. 50/90 Model 49% 0/1
9 GFS Model 46% 0/0
10 NBM Prob. 25/75 Model 40% 0/2

You can check out more details over on this page.

Here’s a breakdown of every ski area and model that was included.

Last updated Thursday February 3, 2021 10am.

Forecast Start: Tuesday February 1, 2021 5am

Forecast End: Thursday February 3, 2021 5am

* = No reliable observations, verification uses SNODAS estimates which may be incorrect.
"Score" accounts for the spread/range of an accurate forecast. Lower spread = higher score. For instance, if 4" falls at a certain location, the forecast for 2-7" gets less points than the forecast for 3-5". Points are deducted for very inaccurate forecasts.

Thomas Horner Weather Forecaster @ Highpoint Weather

Issued Tue Feb. 1 10am
✔️ Verified
87%
29/33
Score
27%
45/165
🎯 Spread
5.2
average
💥 High
1
3%
❌ Low
3
9%

Note: () A few small adjustments this morning: lowered Breck, Copper, Vail, BC, WP, JP, CB, Telluride forecasts by an inch.

Central Colorado
11/30pts (36%) ✔️6/6 (100%) 💥0/6 (0%) ❌0/6 (0%)

Aspen Highlands: 3-7" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

2pts
3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Aspen Mountain: 3-7" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

2pts
4" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Aspen Snowmass: 3-7" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

2pts
4" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Buttermilk: 3-7" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

2pts
2" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Cottonwood Pass*: 4-9" Forecast Actual N/A

Crested Butte S.A.: 3-8" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
2" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Independence Pass*: 4-9" Forecast Actual N/A

Kebler Pass*: 3-8" Forecast Actual N/A

Monarch: 5-10" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
5" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Front Range
1/10pts (10%) ✔️1/2 (50%) 💥0/2 (0%) ❌1/2 (50%)

Cameron Pass: 2-6" Forecast Actual2" ✔️

1pts
2" Feb 2 5am (SNOTEL)
0" Feb 3 5am (SNOTEL)

East Portal*: 4-9" Forecast Actual N/A

Eldora: 5-10" Forecast Actual3" ❌️

3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Hidden Valley*: 4-9" Forecast Actual N/A

St. Mary's Glacier*: 4-9" Forecast Actual N/A

I-70 East
7/30pts (23%) ✔️5/6 (83%) 💥0/6 (0%) ❌1/6 (16%)

A-Basin: 4-9" Forecast Actual3" ❌️

3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Berthoud Pass: 4-9" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

2pts
3" Feb 2 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Feb 3 5am (SNOTEL)

Echo Mountain: 5-10" Forecast Actual N/A

Jones Pass: 3-8" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

1pts
3" Feb 2 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Feb 3 5am (SNOTEL)

Keystone: 3-8" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

1pts
3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Loveland S.A.: 4-9" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

2pts
3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Winter Park: 3-8" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
2" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

I-70 West
5/35pts (14%) ✔️6/7 (85%) 💥0/7 (0%) ❌1/7 (14%)

Beaver Creek: 2-7" Forecast Actual4" ✔️

3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Breckenridge S.A.: 3-8" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
4" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Copper Mountain: 3-8" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
4" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Powderhorn: 0-4" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

2pts
0" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Ski Cooper: 3-8" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

1pts
3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Sunlight: 1-5" Forecast Actual0" ❌️

0" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Vail Pass*: 3-7" Forecast Actual N/A

Vail S.A.: 2-7" Forecast Actual3" ✔️

2" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Park Range / WY
10/25pts (40%) ✔️5/5 (100%) 💥0/5 (0%) ❌0/5 (0%)

Bluebird*: 0-4" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

2pts
0" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Buffalo Pass: 0-4" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
0" Feb 2 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Feb 3 5am (SNOTEL)

Rabbit Ears Pass: 0-4" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
0" Feb 2 5am (SNOTEL)
1" Feb 3 5am (SNOTEL)

Snowy Range: 0-4" Forecast Actual0" ✔️

2pts
0" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Steamboat S.A.: 0-3" Forecast Actual1" ✔️

2pts
1" Feb 2 5am (Official)
0" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Southern Colorado / NM
11/35pts (31%) ✔️6/7 (85%) 💥1/7 (14%) ❌0/7 (0%)

Cuchara*: 12-24" Forecast Actual16" ✔️

2pts
12" Feb 2 5am (SNOTEL)
4" Feb 3 5am (SNOTEL)

Purgatory: 4-9" Forecast Actual6" ✔️

2pts
3" Feb 2 5am (Official)
3" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Red Mountain Pass: 5-10" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

2pts
3" Feb 2 5am (SNOTEL)
2" Feb 3 5am (SNOTEL)

Silverton S.A.*: 5-10" Forecast Actual7" ✔️

2pts
6" Feb 2 5am (Official)
1" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Taos S.V.: 15-30" Forecast Actual27" ✔️

2pts
20" Feb 2 5am (Official)
7" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Telluride S.A.: 3-8" Forecast Actual5" ✔️

1pts
2" Feb 2 5am (Official)
3" Feb 3 5am (Official)

Wolf Creek: 12-24" Forecast Actual27" 💥️

14" Feb 2 5am (Official)
13" Feb 3 5am (Official)