Northern Mountains
Park Range and N Front Range: Steamboat, Buffalo Pass, Rabbit Ears Pass, Bluebird, RMNP, IPW, Cameron Pass
6am New Snow
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
6am Powder Potential
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Updated Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:30pm MST | Published Tue Feb 22, 2022
7-Day Snow Planner (Through Mar. 2)
I-70 Corridor
Front Range, Gore Range, etc.: Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Jones Pass, Loveland, A-Basin, Keystone, Breck, Copper, Vail Pass, Vail, Beaver Creek
6am New Snow
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
6am Powder Potential
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Central Mountains
Elk Mountains, Sawatch Range, Grand Mesa, West Elks: Aspen Resorts, Crested Butte, Powderhorn, Sunlight, Kebler Pass, Independence Pass, Cottonwood Pass, Monarch
6am New Snow
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
6am Powder Potential
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Southern Mountains
San Juans: Telluride, Red Mountain Pass, Silverton, Coal Bank Pass, Purgatory, Wolf Creek
6am New Snow
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
6am Powder Potential
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Denver Metro
Denver and surrounding suburbs: Lakewood, Westminster, Aurora, Highlands Ranch
6am New Snow
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
6am Snow Accum. Chance
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
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Tue
Wed
This is a supplement to our previous forecast. Please consult that article for more information about timings, uncertainty, and the larger scale pattern.
We’ll be keeping this article updated throughout the week. Last updated Wednesday at 12pm.
Retrospective
Arctic air is here and snow has been falling across most of Colorado. We saw a strong cold front on Monday:
At Denver International Airport, the FROPA (frontal passage) was at 11am:
The temperature went from 51 degrees to 34 degrees in 15 minutes. Lows bottomed out at -3 degrees this morning, with the HRRR high resolution model calling for similar lows the next couple nights. Denver’s high temperature was 8 degrees, which is the record coldest high temperature for the date.
On Wednesday morning at 5am, Denver’s low temperature bottomed out at -7 degrees, which set the record lowest temperature for the date. The previous record was -4 degrees, set in 1899.
In the mountains, you can see moist flow aloft and heavy bands of snow, some of which popped up over the plains. These bands are caused by jet streaking, as there is a jet speed max over Colorado. In the Front Range, you can see a weak, shallow upslope with winds from the northeast.
Tuesday and today generally features more of the same as the system has stalled out over the desert southwest. Moisture aloft is increasing today.
As we hinted, there was even a little bit of thundersnow in the initial wave of snow which featured convective instability.
Will It Bust?
One more day of snow remains, with some of the best snow coming this afternoon and into the night.
Trends
(This was posted Tuesday, and may be out of date) The latest model guidance for the rest of the storm has no serious changes, besides an obvious downwards trend for parts of the Front Range (except for Colorado Springs). However, we can see how remaining uncertainty is starting to resolve:
No big surprises here. Southern Colorado’s certainty towards sealing the deal for an excellent event has steadily trended up over the past 72 hours, while areas further north and east in Colorado have settled into a forecast range that is less epic but still decent.
Most notably, the last batch of model runs cut out a significant amount of uncertainty. Generally, this removed the outlandish high end totals for resorts in Summit County, but in general, it raised the “worst-case” low end totals as well.
Our Forecast: Progress so Far
To reiterate, the expected amount of snow on the way will put us well into our forecast ranges for most areas, and some of Tuesday morning’s snow reports were not unexpected at all (a couple inches in Summit County was not a bust). Unlike previous storms, haven’t really dug in and broken down a more specific forecast for each day and for many specific areas, but we have discussed some general ranges on social media and with our quartile snow maps.
So let’s collect what we have into a table.
- Forecast: Our forecast for Monday 5am to Thursday 5am.
- CAIC: CAIC WRF forecast for Wednesday 5am to Thursday 5am.
- NBM: Blend forecast for Wednesday 5am to Thursday 5am.
- Totals: Observed snowfall so far. Each day is the 5am report for the day.
- Projection: If we expect the final totals to fall into our forecast range.
| Area | Forecast (Mon-Thu) | CAIC (Remaining) | NBM (Remaining) | Totals | Tue | Wed | Thu | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purgatory | 24-48” | 12” | 13” | 33” | 14” | 19” | Verify | |
| Red Mtn Pass | 24-36” | 13” | 12” | ~28-36” | ~8-10” | ~20-26” | Bust High | |
| Silverton SA | 24-36” | 12” | 13” | 26” | 10” | 16” | Bust High | |
| Wolf Creek | 30-50” | 10” | 20” | 25” | 9” | 16” | Verify | |
| Snowmass | 12-24” | 8” | 7” | 25” | 6” | 19” | Bust High | |
| Telluride SA | 15-30” | 10” | 9” | 21” | 11” | 10” | Bust High | |
| Aspen Highlands | 12-24” | 6” | 6” | 19” | 9” | 10” | Bust High | |
| Crested Butte SA | 15-30” | 5” | 4” | 14” | 8” | 6” | Verify | |
| Aspen Mountain | 12-24” | 6” | 6” | 12” | 5” | 7” | Verify | |
| Buttermilk | 12-24” | 5” | 6” | 12” | 4” | 8” | Verify | |
| Monarch | 10-20” | 7” | 8” | 9” | 5” | 4” | Verify | |
| Powderhorn | 10-20” | 5” | 6” | 8” | 2” | 6” | Verify | |
| Steamboat | 6-12” | 4” | 3” | 7” | 5” | 2” | Verify | |
| Vail SA | 10-20” | 9” | 5” | 7” | 2” | 5” | Verify | |
| Loveland SA | 7-14” | 8” | 5” | 7” | 2” | 5” | Bust High | |
| Beaver Creek | 10-20” | 8” | 6” | 7” | 1” | 6” | Verify | |
| Buffalo Pass | 8-16” | 5” | 5” | ~5-10” | 6” | ~4-8” | Verify | |
| Cameron Pass | 6-12” | 3” | 3” | ~6” | ~4” | ~2” | Verify | |
| Ski Cooper | 8-16” | 6” | 5” | 6” | 3” | 3” | Verify | |
| Breckenridge SA | 8-16” | 6” | 4” | 5” | 1” | 4” | Verify | |
| Winter Park | 7-14” | 5” | 4” | 5” | 1” | 4” | Verify | |
| Cuchara | 10-20” | 4” | 6” | 5” | 1” | 4” | Bust Low | |
| Berthoud Pass | 7-14” | 5” | 3” | ~5” | ~3” | ~2” | Verify | |
| Boulder | 4-9” | 1” | 2” | 2-5” | 1-3” | 1-2” | Bust Low | |
| Copper Mtn | 8-16” | 6” | 4” | 4” | 1” | 3” | Verify | |
| Keystone | 7-14” | 5” | 4” | 4” | 2” | 2” | Verify | |
| A-Basin | 7-14” | 6” | 4” | 3” | 1” | 2” | Verify | |
| Eldora | 4-8” | 3” | 3” | 2” | 1” | 1” | Verify | |
| Colorado Springs | 3-6” | 1” | 2” | 1-3” | 0-1” | 1-2” | Bust Low | |
| Denver | 3-6” | 1” | 1” | 1-3” | 0-1” | 1-2” | Bust Low | |
| Fort Collins | 4-9” | 1” | 2” | 1-3” | 0-1” | 1-2” | Bust Low |
Forecast Maps
Here’s the latest Blend maps from Wednesday morning.
Deterministic:
Compare to the Blend probabilistic, which is a little more optimistic in some areas and less in other areas, and captures which regions have the highest uncertainty:
Friday Snow
On Friday, a weak shortwave will prevent us from warming up, and bring 0-2” of snow to the central and northern mountains, in addition to 0-1” to the Front Range. Here’s a snowfall map:
Warm and Dry into Next Week
The Front Range will finally get above freezing on Saturday, and then temperatures will warm dramatically as a ridge develops over the western United States and a warmer airmass advects into the region. Zonal flow will aloft will also help us reach warm temperatures as downsloping winds off the mountains compress the air and heats it.
Here are the highs/lows for Denver from the Euro model:
The Blend high temperature forecast for NEXT Thursday looks like March!
