Colorado Weather Forecast #194: June 2, 2022 - June 12, 2022

No more snow or larger systems on the horizon. A look at Colorado's snowpack and afternoon thunderstorm chances into next week.

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Updated Thu Jun 2, 2022 12:00pm MST | Published Thu Jun 2, 2022

By Thomas Horner

Summary

  • Higher elevations of the Front Range and near Summit County have deeper snowpack than last week.
  • Afternoon thunderstorms now a concern. In the mountains, higher thunderstorm risk near the Divide and in northern Colorado. Saturday should be less active than Sunday.
  • Temperatures should be seasonal into next week – not too hot. Severe storms are likely on the high plains.

Retrospective and Current Conditions

Satellite imagery this morning shows some nice fresh snow across the northern Colorado mountains, with the cloud deck and cold temperatures associated with the past system pushing southwards.

(via College of DuPage)
(via College of DuPage)

Comparatively, the southern Colorado mountains are looking almost bare. While the past week or two of snow have brought the Front Range mountains back to above median snowpack…

…the San Juans have been bottomed out.

The previous few days of moisture have been welcome. For parts of the Front Range, this was the most liquid precipitation in a 24 hour period since late May of 2021.

The higher terrain of the Front Range also got additional snow.

Location 24hr Snow
Idaho Springs 4.7 SSE 16.1”
Echo Lake SNOTEL ~8-10”
Niwot Ridge SNOTEL 7”
Bailey 6.8 NNW 6.9”
RMNP SNOTELs ~4-8”
Berthoud Pass SNOTEL ~6”
Evergreen 5.3 S 6”
Rollinsville 1.1 SSW 5.7”
Arapahoe Basin 4”
Hoosier Pass SNOTEL ~3”
Cameron Pass SNOTEL ~3”
Estes Park T-1”
Castle Rock Trace

We’ll note that Castle Rock’s report of Trace amount of snow means that the snow level dropped down to 6,300ft. at least briefly during the storm.

What has the past five days meant for the snowpack? Well, higher elevations of the Front Range should have a deeper snowpack than last week, even when factoring in melting, compaction, and blowing snow. Not bad for the start of June.

Forecast Discussion

Finally, not too much to write about. Our focus will likely be on the potential for afternoon thunderstorms over the next few months. We don’t see a signal for particularly wetter weather until around Tuesday of next week, and it’s very weak. Otherwise, we’ll be experiencing seasonal conditions – warm and dry, with afternoon thunderstorms almost every day.

Temperatures over the next week look to be near average – so not too hot!

(via WeatherBell)
(via WeatherBell)

Precipitation anomalies look pretty close to baseline, which suggests at least somewhat active diurnal thunderstorm conditions over the next week.

(via WeatherBell)
(via WeatherBell)

Most notably is the precipitation anomaly in the high plains, which suggests that we could see some days with very active severe storms. Will we go out and chase?

If we look at thunderstorm grids for the 14ers, we can see that Saturday will likely be the best day to get up high this weekend if you’re trying to avoid getting zapped. Overall, the highest thunderstorm chances are near the Divide and in northern Colorado.

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