ForecastWarm and Dry Through Labor DayOnly isolated storm chances in the mountains, particularly the San Juans and Sangres on Wednesday and Saturday.

Published Tue Sep 6, 2022 - 7:01pm MST • Updated Fri Sep 9, 2022 - 4:14pm

Authors

  • Thomas Horner

Summary

  • Generally hot and dry. Isolated storms in the mountains.
  • 90s on the high plains, 60s in the mountains (50s above treeline).
  • Snow level at 14,000ft. during the day, 13,000ft. at night.
  • Best chances for rain/storms are in the southern mountains on Wednesday and Saturday.

Forecast Discussion

Meteorological fall begins on Thursday, and it's no surprise to see storms starting to leave dustings of snow at high elevation. Some snow was visible on Mt. Bierstadt and Mt. Evans this weekend:

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Hello, world!
Hello, world!

We look to be entering a warmer pattern and it's going to feel like summer out there, even as the days are notably shorter. That said, the snow level should still drop down to 13,000ft. or so each night.

High pressure is set to build to the west of Colorado over the course of this week and persist into the weekend:

This will work drier air into northern and eastern Colorado.

Most of the western United States will experience hot temperatures under this ridge of high pressure.

On Friday, we can see a weak shortwave moving east across the Intermountain West, but it's looking increasingly likely that the ridge wont really budge, and this will have limited impact on Colorado's weather.

That's not to say it will be COMPLETELY dry -- but afternoon thunderstorm chances are almost entirely limited to the mountains, and look to be more isolated and weak than we've generally seen this summer. The chance of any decent precipitation, even when adding up the entire next week's storm potential, is limited almost entirely to the Sangres and San Juans, and it's not much.

The best chances for precipitation come Wednesday afternoon / evening, and maybe Friday evening if that shortwave materializes.

Chances are better further south in Colorado...but not much.

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(via WeatherBell)
(via WeatherBell)

Ensembles suggest the ridge may break down a bit by Labor Day and allow a bit more moisture in, but we doubt that.

For the holiday weekend, it seems likely we'll see highs in the 60s in the mountains (and 50s above treeline). At lower elevations? Well...

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We'll keep our eye on the pattern this week, but prepare for a summer-like week and weekend with fairly minimal rain! Still just enough lightning concerns where you should be checking the forecast before you spend a bunch of time above treeline.

Authors

Thomas Horner

Thomas is an endurance athlete and ski mountaineer based out of Golden, Colorado. His background is in software engineering, meteorology, and cartography, and the rest of his free time is devoted to playing in heavy metal bands.

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